Reasons | Type | Instruments | |
Political Instability Economic Ethical Migration |
Border disputes Ideological Religious Will to expand Environmental |
Intrastate Interstate Aggressive major power |
Diplomatic Economic Informational Militaty |
All the listed reasons for conflict exist in Europe today, but ideology and the will to expand are less prevalent. Instead, four major reasons for conflict are likely to dominate during the next decade. First, there is the possibility of the resurfacing of ethnic and religious conflicts, combined with weak states to deal with the problems. Second, there is the potential for general political instability during transition from a totalitarian to a democratic state. Third, social tension can boil over, following a shift to a market economy and the emergence of large economic differences between countries. Fourth, there is the potential for environmental hazards, due to lack of resources and differing priorities for protection of the environment.
All kinds of conflicts are possible, but intrastate are more likely. The risk for conflicts between states exists as long as nation states remain. The security structure in Europe and economic dependence reduce the risk. The multitudes of internal problems in Eastern Europe increases the risk for intrastate conflicts. The only possible aggressive major power in Europe is Russia.
War, as an instrument to solve conflict, is not obsolete in Europe. Wars in former Yugoslavia and in Chechnya indicate this. The example of Yugoslavia also shows that it is possible to destroy a state in Europe. It is important not to confuse the reason for a conflict with the methods to solve it.
Future options for Swedish Security Policy
A thesis presented to the Faculty of the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree
Master of Military Art and Science
by Bengt Svensson, LTC
Swedish Armed Forces, General Staff Corps
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA350153
The end of the Cold War ignited a period of instability and unpredictability. The risk for a large war, i.e, a third European war, decreased, but the scope for potential conflicts grew.
Categorizing conflicts into intrastate, interstate, and those started by an aggressive major power facilitates an understanding of future threats. Intrastate conflicts might be anti-governmental or stem from a desire for separation. The reasons are, for example, ethnic or religious in nature. Border conflicts are examples of conflicts between states. A non-democratic Russia with external ambitions exemplifies an aggressive major power.
This generic description indicates that it is important to distinguish between the reason for conflict, the type, and the instruments used to solve the problem. The figure shows a structure of this.