The Social Security Administration’s benefit online calculators aren’t to be trusted for use for people under age 60, even for someone who is single and was never married and will never marry. The reason is that unless you change their assumptions, they assume (in contradiction to the Social Security Trustees’ Report’s own assumptions) that the economy will experience zero economy-wide average real wage growth and zero inflation between now and the end of time. That’s an odd assumption for an economy that’s experienced positive average real wage growth rates as well as inflation for each of almost all the postwar years.
But it’s intentionally used to produce low-ball benefit estimates so people will save more on their own and they won’t be so hurt if the system’s benefits are cut in the future, which seems likely.
Why Social Security lowballs benefit estimates
by Laurence Kotlikoff
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/social-security-lowballs-benefit-estimates/
According to table IVB6 of last year’s Social Security Trustees’ Report, the system needs an immediate and permanent 23 percent cut in all SSA benefits starting now and continuing forever to cover its long-term funding shortfall. And for those of you who think the system’s trust fund is real, this requisite 23 percent benefit cut does take into account all of the trust fund’s assets.
(sk)
Larry Kotlikoff の会社は Social Security software を売っている。それを売るためなら、なんでも書く。
とはいえ、書いたもののなかには、結構面白いものも多い。儲けるためには分析が必要で、その分析が間違っていれば儲からない。
だからといって、Larry Kotlikoff の言うことを鵜呑みにしてもいけない。目的はあくまで、自分が儲けることなのだ。
Social Security を信じるか Larry Kotlikoff を信じるかと言われれば、私なら Social Security を信じるが、それは人それぞれの考え方次第なのだ。
Social Security も嘘をつく。ただそれはアメリカ人のすべてにいいようにという嘘なのであって、自分だけが儲けようという嘘とは少しだけ違う。。。と思う。