It’s largely proven that our world is in many ways less violent than it has been in all of human history. This gradual pacification is due to several factors — mainly, the evolution of government, human rights, and alternative solutions to world problems.
But there is a flip side. Though more nations are embracing democracy and largely respecting other democratic governments, the decline of interstate war post-1947 was accompanied by an increase in bloody civil wars which we are still seeing today, namely in the Middle East.
Though governance may be improving with the spread of democracy, a simultaneous improvement of technology and move toward high-tech militarization may have new and unknown effects on the state of war and peace in the world.
The technology that enables US drone attacks might indicate a slippery slope into endless war, with long-term killing operations setting a precedent that other countries might follow, which could result in widened instability and conflict worldwide. Some say drones even create more violence, as terrorists use attacks to recruit more terrorists from fearful communities.
As lean military technology like drones becomes cheaper, it won’t be long before other nations acquire similar weapons, along with increasingly roboticized and autonomized military tech.
Could Endless War Be Possible In An Age Of Historic Peace?
by Jennifer Markert
http://curiousmatic.com/endless-war-possible-age-historic-peace/
A report by a bipartisan panel of several former senior intelligence and military officials expressed concern that the US’ use of drones for long-term targeted killings could lead to perpetual war, especially if adopted by other nations.
At the same time, studies reveal that there is less political violence in the world than ever before — some, like Steven Pinker and Joshua Goldstein, have even called the 21st century a time of historic peace.
So which is it? Is war going away, as some claim, or is it becoming a ceaseless battle of assassinations from afar?
Waning war
It’s largely proven that our world is in many ways less violent than it has been in all of human history. This gradual pacification is due to several factors — mainly, the evolution of government, human rights, and alternative solutions to world problems.
Currently, the world is experiencing a post-WWII respite from interstate war, called the “New Peace” by some historians: a result of wider democratization, nuclear deterrence, and national sovereignty, according to Vox.
Even the 20th century – including WWII’s record death toll of 55 million — amounts to less violence than centuries prior when taking population ratios into account, by Pinker’s calculations.
A simulation by Professor Håvard Hegre has made similar conclusions that war will continue to steadily decline in the next 40 years.
Internalized violence
But there is a flip side. Though more nations are embracing democracy and largely respecting other democratic governments, the decline of interstate war post-1947 was accompanied by an increase in bloody civil wars which we are still seeing today, namely in the Middle East.
There have been 66 civil wars since 1947, with 10 still ongoing, as opposed to just 38 documented between 1800 and 1947.
Religious hostility has also seen a spike in recent years, with Pew research showing a doubling in religious terrorist attacks since 2007 when the research began.
This internalization, plus a growing tendency of asymmetrical drone attacks, can be seen as threats to a supposedly peaceful age.
Drones at war
Though governance may be improving with the spread of democracy, a simultaneous improvement of technology and move toward high-tech militarization may have new and unknown effects on the state of war and peace in the world.
The technology that enables US drone attacks might indicate a slippery slope into endless war, with long-term killing operations setting a precedent that other countries might follow, which could result in widened instability and conflict worldwide.
The panel of officials, which scrutinized the Obama administration’s reliance on drone strikes, emphasized that in spite of having used armed drones for over a decade, there has been no analysis of whether or not such use has actually curbed violence or extremism in intended areas.
Some say drones even create more violence, as terrorists use attacks to recruit more terrorists from fearful communities.
As lean military technology like drones becomes cheaper, it won’t be long before other nations acquire similar weapons, along with increasingly roboticized and autonomized military tech.
A report by the UK’s Ministry of Defense also warns of criminals’ access to drones and satellites and the possibility of environmental warfare in coming decades.
The case may be that though war is less widespread and bloody than ever before, the simplification of lethal force, its interference in war-struck states, and the example it sets for the rest of the world could lead to dangerous bumps along the road to greater peace.