The rise of China (2021)

For now, China is neither willing nor able to replace the U.S. as the leading global power, because it is still inferior militarily (although it is catching up). Therefore, it wants to offer an alternative to the U.S. on the continental and maritime tracks between Asia and Europe. International organizations under Chinese leadership, such as the Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership (2020) for the Indo-Pacific region, also serve this goal – a clear rejection of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, in which the U.S. plays a significant role.
What does this mean for the EU, for Western Europe, but also for Japan, South Korea, and other emerging Asian regions, especially Taiwan, which have so far been under the U.S. hegemonic umbrella? The change to the Biden administration has brought about a rapprochement between the previous free riders and the old leading power, even if the U.S.’s hegemonic dilemma has not been solved. There will be no return to the good old days when Washington took care of international public goods and did the “dirty work” in regions of fragile statehood, while countries like Germany could concentrate on social policy.
From a realist perspective, it follows that Europe must be prepared to share the burden of stability and security. In this way Europe, and countries around the world, can help support the U.S. in the hegemonic struggle with China.
The two alternatives to this scenario are not very pleasant. In the first, a future Chinese world order arises, oriented toward the bureaucratic development state and where the Communist Party in China calls the shots. In the second, the anarchy of the world of states returns for an extended period, in which government is not based on international public goods but on the principle of each country for itself, because the Sino-American conflict will drag on for the foreseeable future.

2 thoughts on “The rise of China (2021)

  1. shinichi Post author

    The rise of China and the future world order

    by Ulrich Menzel

    DECEMBER 17, 2021

    For Washington, Beijing presents both economic and military dilemmas. As China tries to replace the United States as the global leader, countries that benefit from the current world order can help by taking on a bigger share of the burden for maintaining it.

  2. shinichi Post author


    地域的な包括的経済連携協定(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP)、区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)は、ASEAN加盟10カ国(ブルネイ、カンボジア、インドネシア、ラオス、マレーシア、ミャンマー、フィリピン、シンガポール、タイ、ベトナム)と、そのFTAパートナー5カ国(オーストラリア、中国、日本、ニュージーランド、韓国)の間で、2020年11月15日に第4回RCEP首脳会議の席上で署名された経済連携協定 (EPA) である。署名15か国は、世界の人口とGDPの3割を占めている。日本法においては、国会承認を経た「条約」であり、日本国政府による法令番号は、令和3年条約第7号である。




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