The rise of China (2021)

For now, China is neither willing nor able to replace the U.S. as the leading global power, because it is still inferior militarily (although it is catching up). Therefore, it wants to offer an alternative to the U.S. on the continental and maritime tracks between Asia and Europe. International organizations under Chinese leadership, such as the Regional Cooperation Economic Partnership (2020) for the Indo-Pacific region, also serve this goal – a clear rejection of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, in which the U.S. plays a significant role.
What does this mean for the EU, for Western Europe, but also for Japan, South Korea, and other emerging Asian regions, especially Taiwan, which have so far been under the U.S. hegemonic umbrella? The change to the Biden administration has brought about a rapprochement between the previous free riders and the old leading power, even if the U.S.’s hegemonic dilemma has not been solved. There will be no return to the good old days when Washington took care of international public goods and did the “dirty work” in regions of fragile statehood, while countries like Germany could concentrate on social policy.
From a realist perspective, it follows that Europe must be prepared to share the burden of stability and security. In this way Europe, and countries around the world, can help support the U.S. in the hegemonic struggle with China.
The two alternatives to this scenario are not very pleasant. In the first, a future Chinese world order arises, oriented toward the bureaucratic development state and where the Communist Party in China calls the shots. In the second, the anarchy of the world of states returns for an extended period, in which government is not based on international public goods but on the principle of each country for itself, because the Sino-American conflict will drag on for the foreseeable future.

2 thoughts on “The rise of China (2021)

  1. shinichi Post author

    The rise of China and the future world order

    by Ulrich Menzel

    DECEMBER 17, 2021

    https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-world-order/

    For Washington, Beijing presents both economic and military dilemmas. As China tries to replace the United States as the global leader, countries that benefit from the current world order can help by taking on a bigger share of the burden for maintaining it.

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  2. shinichi Post author

    地域的な包括的経済連携協定

    https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/地域的な包括的経済連携協定

    地域的な包括的経済連携協定(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP)、区域全面经济伙伴关系协定)は、ASEAN加盟10カ国(ブルネイ、カンボジア、インドネシア、ラオス、マレーシア、ミャンマー、フィリピン、シンガポール、タイ、ベトナム)と、そのFTAパートナー5カ国(オーストラリア、中国、日本、ニュージーランド、韓国)の間で、2020年11月15日に第4回RCEP首脳会議の席上で署名された経済連携協定 (EPA) である。署名15か国は、世界の人口とGDPの3割を占めている。日本法においては、国会承認を経た「条約」であり、日本国政府による法令番号は、令和3年条約第7号である。

    インドは、交渉が開始された2011年から、FTAパートナー国として、RCEP交渉に参加していたが、主に中国からの製造品やオーストラリアやニュージーランドからの農産物・乳製品のダンピング懸念を理由に、交渉の最終時点の2019年11月に交渉から離脱した。

    インドの離脱により中国主導が懸念される中、日本がインド抜きの15か国による協定署名に踏み切った理由について、「新型コロナウイルスの世界的流行で経済が冷え込む中、RCEPへの経済界からの期待は高いこと、日本がRCEPから退けば、ASEANでの中国の存在感がさらに強まるとの懸念があること。中国と知的財産や電子商取引の分野で共通のルールを持つ意味は大きい。日本は「中国を縛り監視するためにも、協定にとどまる必要があること。」との指摘がある。

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