The news that China had tested a new nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was described by some as a game-changer that stunned US officials. So how big a deal is this, asks Jonathan Marcus of the Strategy and Security Institute, University of Exeter.
Twice in the summer, the Chinese military launched a rocket into space that circled the globe before speeding towards its target.
On the first occasion, it missed its target by about 24 miles (40 km), according to people briefed on the intelligence speaking to the Financial Times, which broke the story.
While some US politicians and commentators were alarmed at China’s apparent progress, Beijing was quick to deny the report, insisting that this was in fact the test of a re-usable spacecraft.
China’s denial is “an act of obfuscation” says Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-Proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, because the story has been confirmed by US officials speaking to other media.
And he finds the claim that China tested an orbital bombardment system [FOB] both “technically plausible and strategically reasonable for Beijing”.
What are ICBMs and FOBS?
An ICBM is a long-range missile that leaves the earth’s atmosphere before re-entry, pursuing a parabolic trajectory towards its target
A Fractional Orbital Bombardment System sends missiles through a partial orbit around the earth to strike targets from an unexpected direction
Both the FT story and the Chinese denial could be right, says Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Institute in Philadelphia.
“A reusable space plane is a hypersonic glider. It just lands. A FOB system delivered via some sort of glider would do much of the same thing as a reusable space plane, so I think the actual differences between the two stories is marginal.”
Indeed over recent months a number of senior US officials have hinted at this kind of Chinese development.
FOB systems are not by any means new.
The idea was pursued by the Soviet Union during the Cold War and is now seemingly being revived by China. The idea is for a weapon that enters a partial orbit around the earth to strike targets from an unexpected direction.
What China appears to have done is to combine the FOBS technology with a hypersonic glider – they glide along the outer edge of the atmosphere avoiding radar and missile defences – into a new system. But why?
“Beijing fears that the United States will use a combination of modernised nuclear forces and missile defences to take away their nuclear deterrent,” says Mr Lewis.
“If the US were to strike Beijing first, which we publicly retain the option of doing, the missile defence system in Alaska might be able to handle the small number of China’s nuclear weapons that survive.”
All the major nuclear players are developing hypersonic systems but view them differently, says Aaron Stein. And these differing points of view, he argues, feed into the other sides’ paranoia, fuelling the arms race.
Both Beijing and Moscow view hypersonics as a means to ensure the defeat of missile defences, he believes. But in contrast, the US plans to use them to strike so-called hard targets like things that support nuclear command and control, using conventional or non-nuclear warheads.
Some advocates of rapid US nuclear modernisation have seen the recent Chinese tests as “a Sputnik moment” a reference to the surprise and alarm registered in the US at the Soviet Union’s first orbital satellite in the late 1950s.
But some experts would disagree and don’t believe this test by China creates a new threat. James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says the US has been vulnerable to nuclear attack by China since at least the 1980s.
But he thinks intensive Chinese, Russian and North Korean programmes to defeat US missile defences should prompt the US to reconsider whether treaties that impose limits on such defences are, after all, in the US interest.
Mr Lewis stresses that the important thing now is for the US to draw the right conclusions.
“I fear this is much more like 9/11 where in the aftermath of the surprise and reeling from a mix of fear and vulnerability, we embarked on a series of disastrous foreign policy decisions that made us far less safe.
“In fact, one of the things that we did was to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile or ABM Treaty, which is far more responsible for China’s development of this system than anything else.”
America’s potential adversaries are all seeking to modernise and upgrade their nuclear weaponry.
China’s arsenal, though, is still dwarfed by that of the United States. But concerns about US missile defences and conventional precision long-range strike systems are all pushing it to develop a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal.
North Korea too is seeking to modernise and refine its nuclear capability, not least, as Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment notes, to secure added leverage in future diplomacy.
“For a few years now,” he says, “they’ve demanded to be treated by the United States as an equal and see the development of ever-more-advanced nuclear and missile capabilities as one way to earn that respect.”
It all contributes to a growing nuclear headache for the Biden administration.
The collapse of much of the existing fabric of arms control agreements inherited from the Cold War does not help. Neither do the growing tensions with both Moscow and Beijing.
In Ankit Panda’s view, the single most meaningful thing the United States could do to stem and slow the ongoing arms race is to discuss limitations on strategic missile defences, as it did during the Cold War.
“Putting missile defence on the table”‘ he says, “would allow Washington to extract meaningful concessions from Russia and China. It would additionally dissuade each from pursuing costly, convoluted, and dangerous means to deliver nuclear weapons.”
The top US general has said China’s suspected hypersonic missile test is close to a Sputnik moment, referring to the Soviet satellite launch that sparked a Cold War arms race.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the Chinese military was “expanding rapidly”.
The Financial Times reports that the test stunned the US military.
Beijing denies any missile test, saying instead it was a spacecraft.
“What we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapon system. And it is very concerning,” Gen Milley told Bloomberg.
“I don’t know if it’s quite a Sputnik moment, but I think it’s very close to that. It has all of our attention.”
His comment is the first official acknowledgement by the US of claims that China conducted two missile tests over the summer. Reports indicate that it was a nuclear-capable missile that could evade US air defence systems.
The 1957 Soviet satellite launch of Sputnik shocked Americans, who feared the Soviets were pulling ahead in technological ability.
The event spurred President John F Kennedy to declare the US would land men on the Moon, a goal achieved in less than a decade.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby refused to comment on the general’s remarks, saying: “This is not a technology that is alien to us, that we haven’t been thinking about for a while.”
He added that the US was working to strengthen defence systems and pursuing its own hypersonic capabilities.
Hypersonic missiles are capable of travelling at five times the speed of sound.
They are considered more manoeuvrable than conventional missiles and more capable of avoiding interception from air defence.
Last week the US conducted three hypersonic missile tests at a Nasa facility in Virginia.
The tests will be used to “inform the development” of future hypersonic missiles, US officials said.
Gen Milley also warned that the Chinese military had grown “from a peasant-based infantry army that was very, very large in 1979 to a very capable military that covers all the domains and has global ambitions”.
According to CNN, CIA Director Bill Burns described China last week as the greatest technological threat to the United States. Earlier this month he said the spy agency would boost its efforts towards China.
President Joe Biden’s White House has characterised the US-Chinese relationship as one of “strategic competition”.
Gen Milley last month faced calls to resign and was accused of treasonous behaviour after it was reported that he had assured his Chinese counterpart in the last days of the Trump administration that the US would not launch a nuclear strike.
The chairman of the joint chiefs of staff later said the calls were “perfectly within the duties and responsibilities” of his job.
China’s hypersonic missile: Could it spark a new arms race?
by Jonathan Marcus
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59001850
The news that China had tested a new nuclear-capable hypersonic missile was described by some as a game-changer that stunned US officials. So how big a deal is this, asks Jonathan Marcus of the Strategy and Security Institute, University of Exeter.
Twice in the summer, the Chinese military launched a rocket into space that circled the globe before speeding towards its target.
On the first occasion, it missed its target by about 24 miles (40 km), according to people briefed on the intelligence speaking to the Financial Times, which broke the story.
While some US politicians and commentators were alarmed at China’s apparent progress, Beijing was quick to deny the report, insisting that this was in fact the test of a re-usable spacecraft.
China’s denial is “an act of obfuscation” says Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Non-Proliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, California, because the story has been confirmed by US officials speaking to other media.
And he finds the claim that China tested an orbital bombardment system [FOB] both “technically plausible and strategically reasonable for Beijing”.
What are ICBMs and FOBS?
Both the FT story and the Chinese denial could be right, says Aaron Stein, director of research at the Foreign Policy Institute in Philadelphia.
“A reusable space plane is a hypersonic glider. It just lands. A FOB system delivered via some sort of glider would do much of the same thing as a reusable space plane, so I think the actual differences between the two stories is marginal.”
Indeed over recent months a number of senior US officials have hinted at this kind of Chinese development.
FOB systems are not by any means new.
The idea was pursued by the Soviet Union during the Cold War and is now seemingly being revived by China. The idea is for a weapon that enters a partial orbit around the earth to strike targets from an unexpected direction.
What China appears to have done is to combine the FOBS technology with a hypersonic glider – they glide along the outer edge of the atmosphere avoiding radar and missile defences – into a new system. But why?
“Beijing fears that the United States will use a combination of modernised nuclear forces and missile defences to take away their nuclear deterrent,” says Mr Lewis.
“If the US were to strike Beijing first, which we publicly retain the option of doing, the missile defence system in Alaska might be able to handle the small number of China’s nuclear weapons that survive.”
All the major nuclear players are developing hypersonic systems but view them differently, says Aaron Stein. And these differing points of view, he argues, feed into the other sides’ paranoia, fuelling the arms race.
Both Beijing and Moscow view hypersonics as a means to ensure the defeat of missile defences, he believes. But in contrast, the US plans to use them to strike so-called hard targets like things that support nuclear command and control, using conventional or non-nuclear warheads.
Some advocates of rapid US nuclear modernisation have seen the recent Chinese tests as “a Sputnik moment” a reference to the surprise and alarm registered in the US at the Soviet Union’s first orbital satellite in the late 1950s.
But some experts would disagree and don’t believe this test by China creates a new threat. James Acton of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace says the US has been vulnerable to nuclear attack by China since at least the 1980s.
But he thinks intensive Chinese, Russian and North Korean programmes to defeat US missile defences should prompt the US to reconsider whether treaties that impose limits on such defences are, after all, in the US interest.
Mr Lewis stresses that the important thing now is for the US to draw the right conclusions.
“I fear this is much more like 9/11 where in the aftermath of the surprise and reeling from a mix of fear and vulnerability, we embarked on a series of disastrous foreign policy decisions that made us far less safe.
“In fact, one of the things that we did was to withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic Missile or ABM Treaty, which is far more responsible for China’s development of this system than anything else.”
America’s potential adversaries are all seeking to modernise and upgrade their nuclear weaponry.
China’s arsenal, though, is still dwarfed by that of the United States. But concerns about US missile defences and conventional precision long-range strike systems are all pushing it to develop a larger and more diverse nuclear arsenal.
North Korea too is seeking to modernise and refine its nuclear capability, not least, as Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment notes, to secure added leverage in future diplomacy.
“For a few years now,” he says, “they’ve demanded to be treated by the United States as an equal and see the development of ever-more-advanced nuclear and missile capabilities as one way to earn that respect.”
It all contributes to a growing nuclear headache for the Biden administration.
The collapse of much of the existing fabric of arms control agreements inherited from the Cold War does not help. Neither do the growing tensions with both Moscow and Beijing.
In Ankit Panda’s view, the single most meaningful thing the United States could do to stem and slow the ongoing arms race is to discuss limitations on strategic missile defences, as it did during the Cold War.
“Putting missile defence on the table”‘ he says, “would allow Washington to extract meaningful concessions from Russia and China. It would additionally dissuade each from pursuing costly, convoluted, and dangerous means to deliver nuclear weapons.”
Chinese missile launch very concerning, says top US general
28 October 2021
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59072616
The top US general has said China’s suspected hypersonic missile test is close to a Sputnik moment, referring to the Soviet satellite launch that sparked a Cold War arms race.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley said in an interview with Bloomberg News that the Chinese military was “expanding rapidly”.
The Financial Times reports that the test stunned the US military.
Beijing denies any missile test, saying instead it was a spacecraft.
“What we saw was a very significant event of a test of a hypersonic weapon system. And it is very concerning,” Gen Milley told Bloomberg.
“I don’t know if it’s quite a Sputnik moment, but I think it’s very close to that. It has all of our attention.”
His comment is the first official acknowledgement by the US of claims that China conducted two missile tests over the summer. Reports indicate that it was a nuclear-capable missile that could evade US air defence systems.
The 1957 Soviet satellite launch of Sputnik shocked Americans, who feared the Soviets were pulling ahead in technological ability.
The event spurred President John F Kennedy to declare the US would land men on the Moon, a goal achieved in less than a decade.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby refused to comment on the general’s remarks, saying: “This is not a technology that is alien to us, that we haven’t been thinking about for a while.”
He added that the US was working to strengthen defence systems and pursuing its own hypersonic capabilities.
Hypersonic missiles are capable of travelling at five times the speed of sound.
They are considered more manoeuvrable than conventional missiles and more capable of avoiding interception from air defence.
Last week the US conducted three hypersonic missile tests at a Nasa facility in Virginia.
The tests will be used to “inform the development” of future hypersonic missiles, US officials said.
Gen Milley also warned that the Chinese military had grown “from a peasant-based infantry army that was very, very large in 1979 to a very capable military that covers all the domains and has global ambitions”.
According to CNN, CIA Director Bill Burns described China last week as the greatest technological threat to the United States. Earlier this month he said the spy agency would boost its efforts towards China.
President Joe Biden’s White House has characterised the US-Chinese relationship as one of “strategic competition”.
Gen Milley last month faced calls to resign and was accused of treasonous behaviour after it was reported that he had assured his Chinese counterpart in the last days of the Trump administration that the US would not launch a nuclear strike.
The chairman of the joint chiefs of staff later said the calls were “perfectly within the duties and responsibilities” of his job.
米軍震撼させた｢中国の極超音速ミサイル｣の性能
その衝撃はスプートニク･ショックに匹敵
by David E. Sanger, William J. Broad
The New York Times
https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/466124
アメリカの核防衛をかいくぐる目的で中国が設計した極超音速ミサイルの実験は、アメリカにとって「スプートニク・ショック」に「極めて近い」ものだった。10月27日、軍制服組トップのマーク・ミリー統合参謀本部議長はそう語り、中国の兵器実験がアメリカ当局にとっていかに衝撃的だったかを公の場で初めて認めた。
中国政府が巨額の資金を投じて軍事力の近代化を進め、核軍拡を模索しているとみられる中で行われた今回のミサイル実験により、冷戦時のような軍拡競争が再燃しかねない事態となっている。
「射程無制限かつ迎撃不能」
イギリスのフィナンシャル・タイムズがいち早く報じた2度の実験は夏に行われたもので、その光景は中国政府の狙いどおりアメリカの衛星からはっきりと確認できていたはずだ。ところが、アメリカの高官は27日にミリー氏がブルームバーグテレビジョンのインタビュー番組でこの件について話すまで、ほぼ沈黙を貫いていた。
ミリー氏は「スプートニク・ショックに完全に匹敵するのかどうかはわからないが、それに極めて近いと思う」と話し、自らを含む軍幹部は衝撃を受けたと明かした。「軍事技術上、極めて重要な出来事」であり、「われわれのすべての注意を向けている」という。
アメリカにとって驚きだったのは、中国が2つの技術を組み合わせた点にあるようだ。1つは、ミサイルを地球の周回軌道に部分的に乗せることで射程距離の制約を事実上取り払う部分軌道爆撃システムの技術。もう1つは、経路を急激に変化させながら飛行することで、アメリカが現在配備するあらゆるミサイル迎撃システムを時代遅れの産物に変える極超音速滑空体の技術だ。
伝えられるところによると、2度の実験のうち少なくとも一方は標的から大きく外れたため完全な成功とはいえなかった。が、こうした兵器開発によって、中国がいずれ核弾頭を搭載した極超音速滑空体を低軌道に投入し、思いどおりの場所から標的めがけて発射させられるようになる可能性が浮上した。アメリカの守りが手薄な南極圏経由の攻撃も想定される。
アメリカ本土に現在配備されているミサイル迎撃システムは、すべて太平洋側の西と北に向けられており、南からの攻撃には対応できないおそれがある。仮に南方面からの攻撃を想定したミサイル防衛基地が存在したとしても、現在の迎撃システムは大気圏外で予測可能な放物線の軌道を描く大陸間弾道ミサイル用に設計されているため、大気圏内でジグザグに進路を変える極超音速兵器を迎撃するのはまず無理だ。
スプートニク・ショックに近いというミリー氏の発言には、冷戦時代の記憶を呼び起こさせる意図がある。1957年、ソビエト連邦による人類初の人工衛星「スプートニク1号」の打ち上げ成功は、アメリカ政府に「宇宙開発競争でソビエトに後れを取った」という恐怖心を抱かせ、宇宙開発だけでなく、核軍拡競争にも拍車をかけるきっかけとなった。
核軍拡競争はソ連が崩壊してからの30年間は落ち着きをみせるようになっていたが、ここに来て、形を変えた新たな軍拡競争がよみがえるおそれが浮上している。
アメリカ軍の「沈黙」が意味すること
ロシアや北朝鮮と同じく極超音速兵器の開発を独自に進めるアメリカは、10月中旬に起きたブースターの不具合など技術的な問題に直面している。ただ、中国とアメリカの双方はそれぞれの技術課題を克服するリソースを有しているため、軍備制限の専門家の多くはそうした状況が新たな兵器開発競争につながる展開を危惧している。折しもジョー・バイデン大統領は、アメリカの核戦力の近代化に数兆ドルを投じるという提案を回避する策を練っているところだ。
アメリカ国防総省が沈黙を貫いていたのは、今回のミサイル実験の衝撃があまりにも大きかったからかもしれない。フィナンシャル・タイムズによる第一報の後も、国防総省のジョン・カービー報道官は実験の有無について明言を避けていた。
2014年以降、極超音速滑空体の実験を繰り返してきた中国は、すでに「DF-17（東風17）」と呼ばれる中距離ミサイルを実戦配備している。極超音速滑空体を搭載できるミサイルで、今では中国の軍事パレードに欠かせない存在になっている。
だが今回の実験は、アメリカ国防総省にさらなる動揺をもたらしたようだ。中国は、台湾の防空識別圏内に戦闘機などを侵入させ、長距離核ミサイル用に新たな地下格納庫を何百と建設しているうえ、対衛星兵器用を配備し、ほかのどの国よりも高い頻度でロケットを宇宙に打ち上げており、国防総省は懸念を強めている。
アメリカも「極超音速ミサイル」を開発中
27日の記者会見でカービー氏は、中国の行動とその意図は近く完了する国防戦略の見直しに「織り込まれる」ことになると述べた。バイデン政権が目下進めている「核態勢の見直し（ニュークリアー・ポスチャー・レビュー＝NPR）」においても考慮の対象になるとみられる。NPRの報告書は通常、新大統領の就任から1年程度で公表される。
カービー氏は「われわれが独自に追求している極超音速攻撃能力は具体的かつ本物だ。そうした攻撃能力の開発を間違いなく進めている」とし、アメリカも中国と同様の兵器開発で競争を繰り広げていると明言。「ただ、実験や今後の方向性といった詳細に立ち入ることはしない」と述べた。
カービー氏の発言には、中国の実験をスプートニク・ショックにたとえることにクギを刺す狙いがあったようだ。その数時間前に、ミリー氏がそうした表現を持ち出していた。
カービー氏は「この技術進歩に特色をつけてレッテルを貼ることは、われわれに何のメリットももたらさないと考えている」とコメントした。
东风-17高超音速弹道导弹
东风-17高超音速弹道导弹（DF-17）是中华人民共和国开发的实用性陆军战术高超音速乘波体临近空间弹道导弹，改进自东风-16B型弹道导弹，配有高超音速弹头，于2019年中华人民共和国70周年国庆阅兵式上首次向公众展示，是一种全天候、无依托、强突防的可对中近程目标实施精确打击的高超音速武器，這也意味著中華人民共和國成為世界上第一个装备高超音速武器的国家，而东风-17也成为第一个具备初始作戰能力的高超音速武器。
东风-17是一款高超音速武器，被认为是中国大陆反介入/拒止战略武器的一环。复杂的飞行轨迹使得对东风-17的拦截变得非常困难，增加了其打击目标的成功率。由于弹头形状的改进，弹头载荷的减少，使得东风-17的射程大大增加，其打击目标是对方重要反导防空系统等高价值目标。
2018年初新华社曾刊登一份报道，称火箭军分别于2017年11月1日和15日，对一款名为东风-17的新型“高超声速滑翔飞行器”进行了两次试射；导弹成功击中目标，且弹头击中的位置离目标靶心只有数米远，其精度超过现役的任何一款导弹。并披露了这是一款中程、弹道式、单级、常规导弹。且采用垂直发射，大部分飞行轨迹是按照抛物线飞行，根据作战需要可以在再入大气层的前后进行滑翔变轨飞行。
先前媒体推测东风-17搭载的战术弹头很可能是早前曝光的WU-14高超音速飞行器，后者从2014年起陆续进行过6次发射实验。WU-14从地面搭载火箭发射后，与火箭助推器分离，然后再入大气层进行无动力高速飞行。据称其速度高达10马赫（约12,359公里/小时）。 近日有媒体认为，东风-17采用的是大气层内起滑技术：导弹在上升到预定高度后关闭发动机，依靠自身重力实现转弯，使用火箭发动机横向加速达到滑翔速度后开始滑翔，使对手无法从远距离对其进行侦测。萨德克星是东风17型导弹专为美国战区反导系统开发的可以预期构筑中国的快速打击体系。另有媒体报道：根据东风-17以往的试射时间和距离计算，其飞行速度高达6800米/秒（20马赫）。
东风-17研制过程中，研发人员在JF12激波风洞测试其空气动力性能。后者是中国科学院于2012年建成的一项风洞测试装置，可以吹出5-9马赫模拟风，温度可达摄氏3000度左右，完全模拟弹头在高超音速飞行中所经受的恶劣环境。
2019年12月27日，就在東風-17公開亮相近3個月後，俄羅斯宣佈其首個裝備先鋒高超音速的導彈團正式進入戰備值班。
2020年3月，美国国防部提出加快常规武装高超音速滑翔飞行器（HGV）的发展，以跟上中国的发展步伐。前美国国防部主官發展與工程的副部长迈克尔·格里芬（英語：Michael Griffin）向美國众议院軍事委員會提出，美国需要开发高超音速武器以“让我们能够与我们的对手匹敌”。