United Nations Population Division

Probabilistic Projections: Total Population (thousands)
Population projections based on probabilistic projections of total fertility from the 2010 Revision

2 thoughts on “United Nations Population Division

  1. shinichi Post author

    http://esa.un.org/wpp/P-WPP/htm/PWPP_Total-Population.htm

    Explanation: These charts show estimates and projections of the total population for 197 countries and areas with a population of 100,000 or more in 2010. The projections are based on the probabilistic fertility projections from the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. These probabilistic projections of total fertility had been carried out with a Bayesian Hierarchical Model. The figures display the high, medium and low variant of the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects, as well as the probabilistic median and the 95 as well as 80 percent confidence intervals of the projections. It should be noted that there can be a slight difference between the median of these experimental probabilistic population projections and the medium variant of the official 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. This is due to the fact that the population projections displayed here were carried out with a random sub-sample of 5,000 probabilistic fertility trajectories from the original 100,000 trajectories of total fertility used in the 2010 Revision.

    Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010): Population projections using probabilistic projections of total fertility and life expectancy at birth, based on a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). New York (internal data set)

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  2. shinichi Post author

    Imagine the world in 2100 where there are:
    • 1.5 billion people living in China;
    • 55 million in Japan (3.6% of China); and
    • 100 million in Korea.

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