Category Archives: prediction

Bill Gates

Gates acknowledged that he’s usually the optimist in the room, reminding people that we’re lifting children out of poverty around the globe and getting better at eliminating diseases like polio and malaria. But “there’s one area though where the world isn’t making much progress,” Gates said, “and that’s pandemic preparedness.” The likelihood that such a disease will appear continues to rise. New pathogens emerge all the time as the world population increases and humanity encroaches on wild environments. It’s becoming easier and easier for individual people or small groups to create weaponized diseases that could spread like wildfire around the globe.

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Bill Gates

I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system, and possibly program, of all time. (1987) We will never make a 32-bit operating system. (1989) Within five years, I predict it (Windows Tablet PC) will be the most popular form of PC sold in America. (2002) Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time. (2004)

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地震調査研究推進本部事務局

確率論的地震動予測地図(確率の分布)の例 今後 30 年間 に 震度 6 弱以上 の揺れに見舞われる確率

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地震調査委員会

領域または地震名 地震規模 地震発生確率 10年以内 30年以内 50年以内 南海トラフ M8~M9クラス 20%程度 70%程度 90%程度 東北地方太平洋沖 Mw8.4~9.0 ほぼ0% ほぼ0% ほぼ0% 相模トラフ沿い M8クラス ほぼ0% ~1% ほぼ0% ~5% ほぼ0% ~10% 相模トラフ沿い M7程度 30%程度 70%程度 80%程度

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Victor Baetens

David Woo (5/12/2013) about bitcoin: “Our fair value analysis implies a price of $1300” Franklin Raines (10/6/2004): “These supbrime assets are so riskless that their capital for holding them should be under 2 percent.” Joseph Cassano (2007): “It is hard for us, without being flippant, to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing one dollar in any of these Credit Default Swap transactions.” David Lereah (12/8/2005): “I truly believe the housing market will continue to expand. But rather than the double-digit price appreciation we’ve seen, we might see that drop to a 5 or 6 percent appreciation sometime toward the end … Continue reading

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Shaun da Costa

Economics is often described as the ‘dismal science’. Unlike other traditional sciences, economics rarely provides a simple solution to present day issues. Furthermore economists have a poor record of predicting the future. Even notable economists such as Joe Stiglitz agree that economists only get it right at best around 3 or 4 times out of ten. However it should be acknowledged that economic forecasting is a difficult art at best – human behavior is forever changing and the economy is a complex mechanism with many working parts. Some of the most wildly inaccurate forecasts in recent times: The Great Depression: Almost every economist failed to predict the great crash of … Continue reading

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斉藤洋二

ブローデルは16世紀のフェリペ2世時代のスペインに焦点をあてて研究し、歴史を3つの周期でとらえた。つまり歴史というのは、表面的かつ短期には個人や出来事史により成り立ち(短期持続)、中期的には社会の歴史、すなわち人口動態や戦争などにより決定され(中期持続)、そして深層においては自然や環境などにより決定される長期周期運動があるとした。そして、このうち長期持続を最も重視した。 ブローデルの歴史観を現在の日本に当てはめると、短期については様々な出来事の発生によりその傾向はとらえにくいが、中期では少子高齢化の進行、そして長期的に見ればCO2の増加や原発を含めたエネルギー問題など自然・環境の悪化があり、国家の衰退が続いていくことが予測される。 1990年代半ばを境に生産年齢人口が減少に転じ、さらに08年12月に総人口が約1億2809万9000人でピークアウトしてほぼ5年を経過した。かかる人口ボーナス期からオーナス期への劇的変化に加え、巨額の政府債務残高やエネルギー不足など中長期的な経済条件の悪化を見れば、日本経済が低落傾向に入っていることは否定しがたい。73年の変動相場制移行以来続いてきた円高の40年は終了し、今まさに円安への歴史的な大転換期にあると考えてよいのではなかろうか。

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小林俊介

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Arthur C. Clarke

When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

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Tucker Nichols

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Alex Rosenberg, Tyler Curtain

Unlike the physical world, the domain of economics includes a wide range of social “constructions” — institutions like markets and objects like currency and stock shares — that even when idealized don’t behave uniformly. They are made up of unrecognized but artificial conventions that people persistently change and even destroy in ways that no social scientist can really anticipate. We can exploit gravity, but we can’t change it or destroy it. No one can say the same for the socially constructed causes and effects of our choices that economics deals with. Another factor economics has never been able to tame is science itself. These are the drivers of economic growth, … Continue reading

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東京スポーツ

経済産業省資源エネルギー庁が13日、愛知・三重沖合の海中から次世代エネルギーと目されるメタンハイドレートを分解し、メタンガスの採取に成功した。海洋上では初の快挙で、今後の実用化に大きく前進した。それどころか日本の周辺海域はメタンハイドレートの宝庫で、「100年分はおろか無尽蔵」との見方が出ている。これで日本が、中東以上の資源大国へ大化けする可能性が出てきた。 エジプシャン・マウ (WiMAX): 儲けのタネは人に話さないのが常識でその逆は詐欺師てのが世の習わし

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>Louis Gargour

> Italian yields, which hit euro-era highs above 6 percent this week on fears of contagion from Greece, could touch those levels again in the next two weeks if a European deal on a second Greek bailout doesn’t solve the problem. A lot of people are focusing on Italy and unless … the European governments do something very decisive today we’re going to see Italy go a lot wider before the situation improves. We believe peripheral sovereigns will exhibit further volatility, particularly Italy and Spain. I recommend a prudent approach with continued underweights and shorts in the peripheral countries. We began by looking at Italian banks, and when we looked … Continue reading

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