>Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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Things always become obvious after the fact.
When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.
If you hear a “prominent” economist using the word ‘equilibrium,’ or ‘normal distribution,’ do not argue with him; just ignore him, or try to put a rat down his shirt.
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4 Responses to >Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  1. s.A says:

    >The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

  2. s.A says:

    >Read books are far less valuable than unread ones. The library should contain as much of what you do not know as your financial means, mortgage rates, and the currently tight real-estate market alow you to put there.

    Doctors most commonly get mixed up between absence of evidence and evidence of abense.

    Scientists may be in the business of laughing at their predecessors, but owing to an array of human mental dispositions, few realize that someone will laugh at their beliefs in the (disappointingly near) future.

    Probability and expectation are not the same. Its probability and probability times the pay off.

  3. Anonymous says:

    >Everything could be related yet not related at all.

    How to judge the new information is more accurate?
    By giving AN OPPORTUNITY to compare.
    An opportunity to study the pandora box and to unlock free the good elements out of its imperfect system. (even for a very brief moment but an fair action)

  4. Anonymous says:

    >absence of evidence: means no evidence found here, or evidence is none exist?
    evidence of absence: means evidence is presented to prove A thing is missing here.
    they both exist inside books

    the book can be read as verification tool or the book can be read as not.
    The reading provide micro vision(current situation) and macro vision of possible future
    provide analytic opportunity
    provide easy exam of any absence of evidence and evidence of absence
    free the chance for advancement.

    possible upgrade library system
    possible joint systems into one
    split for easy and open access.
    (dream the possibility of allowing staff to self-index if kindle/e-reader devices becomes the future of library's collection?)

    a promised support from general public
    add believes, add values
    place the trust on Library's Angle
    not for post

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