New York Times

PredictionAccording to our statistical election-forecasting machine, the Republicans have a moderate edge, with about a 68% chance of gaining a majority.
Several other organizations perform similar calculations. Some use similar statistical models; others rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. We compile and standardize them every day into one scoreboard …

2 thoughts on “New York Times

  1. shinichi Post author

    Who Will Win The Senate?
    Senate Forecasts
    New York Times
    http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/

    To forecast each party’s chance of gaining a majority, our model first calculates win probabilities for each individual Senate race. In addition to the latest polls, it incorporates the candidates’ political experience, fund-raising, a state’s past election results and national polling.

    With these state-by-state probabilities in hand, our machine randomly simulates all 36 Senate elections. We let the states move together to some extent, but you’ll no doubt occasionally see some surprising results — over 25 percent of the time, at least one of the races we call “likely” will be won by the opposite party.

    We run the above simulation 250,000 times and tally the results. (Don’t worry, we don’t do it by hand.) By counting up the simulations that resulted in a Republican majority, we can estimate the probability that they will win a majority in the Senate. Likewise for the Democrats.

    Several other organizations perform similar calculations. Some use similar statistical models; others rely on reporting and knowledgeable experts’ opinions. We compile and standardize them every day into one scoreboard for comparison.

    **

    Election 2014
    The Race for the Midterms in the House and Senate
    New York Times
    http://www.nytimes.com/pages/politics/2014-midterm-elections/

    For months, we’ve been tracking the probability of each party controlling the Senate after the 2014 elections. Here’s how the chances have changed over time.
    supporters


    ELECTION 2014

    senate-control-republican-chance-largeHorizontal375


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  2. shinichi Post author

    (sk)

    選挙予測などということにカネをかけ、その仕事を真面目にやればやるほど、くだらなさと馬鹿馬鹿しさが浮き出てくる。

    予測していると言いながら投票に影響を与え続けるのが、こういうマスコミの仕事なのだろう。

    影響される有権者たちが悪いと言う人もいるけれど、有権者の心理はすでに分析が済んでいて、有権者には踊らされるという選択しか残されていない。

    コンピュータや統計を駆使しているといって自分たちの予測を正当づけたりするけれど、コンピュータにどんなデータを入れるかを判断するのは人であり、統計モデルを作るのも人であることを考えれば、人がコンピュータや統計を用いずに予測するのとなんら変わりがない。

    惑わされるほうが悪いと言い切れない、いやな感じがする。

    選挙にまつわるこんなお祭り騒ぎが、あたりまえになってしまっていることに、誰も疑問を持たない。そういうことが、私たちのまわりには、たくさんある。

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