日刊ゲンダイDIGITAL

「確実に盛り込みたい」――。ムニューシン米財務長官は13日、15日からワシントンで始まる日米貿易交渉で、円安誘導策を禁じる「為替条項」を求める姿勢を鮮明にした。第2次安倍政権で6年以上「円安株高」を演出してきた「異次元金融緩和」は、自国で出口戦略が描けない中、米国によって“強制終了”させられることになりそうだ。
民主党政権時代、1ドル=80円台だった為替は、安倍政権発足直後の異次元金融緩和(2013年4月~)により、100円を大幅に超える円安が進行。輸出企業は恩恵を受け、株価も上昇した。
米国は、異次元緩和は意図的な円安誘導政策で日本車が安く輸入され、米国産農産品が高く輸出される“元凶”だと見ている。ムニューシンは、カナダやメキシコとのNAFTA(北米自由貿易協定)見直しや、中国との貿易協議で、為替条項を盛り込んでいるので、対日交渉でも議題にする考えだ。

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4 Responses to 日刊ゲンダイDIGITAL

  1. shinichi says:

    異次元金融緩和を米が“強制終了”企業と日銀を円急騰が襲う

    日刊ゲンダイDIGITAL

    https://www.nikkan-gendai.com/articles/view/news/251925

    「確実に盛り込みたい」――。ムニューシン米財務長官は13日、15日からワシントンで始まる日米貿易交渉で、円安誘導策を禁じる「為替条項」を求める姿勢を鮮明にした。第2次安倍政権で6年以上「円安株高」を演出してきた「異次元金融緩和」は、自国で出口戦略が描けない中、米国によって“強制終了”させられることになりそうだ。

     民主党政権時代、1ドル=80円台だった為替は、安倍政権発足直後の異次元金融緩和(2013年4月~)により、100円を大幅に超える円安が進行。輸出企業は恩恵を受け、株価も上昇した。

     米国は、異次元緩和は意図的な円安誘導政策で日本車が安く輸入され、米国産農産品が高く輸出される“元凶”だと見ている。ムニューシンは、カナダやメキシコとのNAFTA(北米自由貿易協定)見直しや、中国との貿易協議で、為替条項を盛り込んでいるので、対日交渉でも議題にする考えだ。

    ■政府も日銀も打つ手なし

    「自ら出口戦略を持って、徐々に異常な金融緩和から抜け出せればよかったのですが、外圧で軌道修正せざるを得なくなった。米国は、日本の国内事情など鑑みず、円高という見える成果が出るまでプレッシャーをかけてくるでしょう。この先、急激な円高が心配されます」(経済評論家・斎藤満氏)

     円高が進めば、輸出企業は大きな打撃を受け、株価は下がる。厄介なのが、株の爆買いで株価をカサ上げしてきた日銀だ。日銀は自己資本がわずか8兆円で、日経平均株価が1万8000円を切ると「債務超過」に陥るとされる。株が原因で債務超過になった日銀は、さすがにこれ以上、株を買い支えにくくなるだろう。株価下落に何もできない可能性が高い。

     さらに、円高は国債の暴落(金利は上昇)をもたらす。

    「国債金利が上昇すれば、公共事業など大胆な財政出動はできなくなります。円高不況が目の前にあっても、政府も日銀も“打つ手”がないのです。6年もの異次元金融緩和のたまりにたまったツケが、いよいよ露呈するということです」(斎藤満氏)

     米国に急ブレーキをかけられ、6年以上走り続けた「暴走バス」が崖の下へ……。いよいよその時が近づいてきた。

  2. shinichi says:

    US, Japan trade talks will include currency: Mnuchin

    AFP

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-japan-trade-talks-currency-mnuchin-203009800–finance.html

    With US-Japan trade talks set to begin Monday, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Saturday any agreement will include a requirement to refrain from manipulating currencies to gain an advantage in international trade.

    But he said there is no arbitrary deadline for completing the talks.

    The US priority is that countries “don’t in any way manipulate their currency for purposes of competitive advantages,” Mnuchin told reporters on the sidelines of the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

    US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is set to hold two days of talks with Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi on Monday and Tuesday.

    Mnuchin said the talks would focus on a “broad agenda.”

    The US has long argued that China kept its currency artificially low to make its exports cheaper, and negotiators have insisted on a provision on exchange rates in the ongoing trade talks with Beijing.

    And a clause was included in the revised free trade pact with Mexico and Canada, dubbed the USMCA.

    “I think we’ll want to make sure whatever trade agreements there are, that there are currency provisions that reflect that in the agreement similar to USMCA and as we’ve alluded to in our China discussions,” Mnuchin said Saturday.

  3. shinichi says:

    U.S. to seek currency chapters in trade talks with Japan, others: Mnuchin
    David Lawder, Leika Kihara

    Reuters

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-imf-worldbank-us-japan/u-s-to-seek-currency-chapters-in-trade-talks-with-japan-others-mnuchin-idUSKCN1MO00W

    U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Saturday that Washington wants to include a provision to deter currency manipulation in future trade deals, including with Japan, based on the currency chapter in the new deal to revamp NAFTA.

    The remark drew concern in Japan, where local media ran front-page stories questioning whether this would give Washington the right to label as currency manipulation any future foreign exchange market interventions by Tokyo to keep sharp yen rises in check.

    The yen is often regarded as a “safe-haven” currency in Asia, attracting capital inflows during times of market distress that can spike its value for short periods, hurting exports.

    Mnuchin told reporters at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings in Bali that Washington views the currency chapter in the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) as a model for future trade deals to deter trading partners from currency manipulation.

    “Our objective would be that the currency issues … We’d like to include (them) in future trade agreements. With everybody. I’m not singling out Japan on that,” Mnuchin said, when asked whether the United States will discuss currencies in trade negotiations with Japan.

    “We haven’t had specific conversations on that. We obviously continually have conversations with my counterparts about currency. But that is the model we’d like to incorporate going forward,” he said.

    Mnuchin has criticized China for recent declines in the yuan’s value, and said Washington also wants to make currency issues a central part of any talks to resolve the U.S.-China trade conflict.

    Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi, who oversees trade talks with the United States, said on Sunday he had so far made no discussions on currencies with his counterpart, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

    “If discussions on this subject become necessary, they will be made by the finance ministers of both countries,” Motegi said in a television program, in response to Mnuchin’s remark.

    U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed in September to start trade talks in an arrangement that, for now, protects Japanese automakers from further tariffs.

    Along with fears of being slapped with higher tariffs on its auto exports to the United States, Japan worries about having its hands tied on addressing sharp yen rises that hurts its export-reliant economy.

    Trump in the past has criticized the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy, saying it was aimed at weakening the yen, a claim the central bank dismisses.

    NEW NAFTA CURRENCY CHAPTER

    Democrats in the U.S. Congress have long called for enforceable currency provisions in trade deals and were disappointed in 2015 when one was not included in the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, which President Donald Trump abandoned last year.

    In the Sept 30 deal to revamp the North American Free Trade Agreement, the United States, Canada and Mexico agreed to “avoid manipulating exchange rates or the international monetary system in order to prevent effective balance of payments adjustment or to gain an unfair competitive advantage.”

    The United States has not complained about Canada’s and Mexico’s free-floating currencies, but sought the chapter to deter manipulation in future trade deals.

  4. shinichi says:

    ムニューシン米財務長官
    United States Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin

    為替条項
    currency chapters

    為替操作
    currency manipulation

    異次元金融緩和政策
    the Bank of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy

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