Between 2025 and 2035, intelligent robots with human-like capabilities will be able to do practically any job: nurse, social worker, construction worker, shop attendant, waiter, dentist, teacher, translator, cleaner, fire fighter, security guard, soldier…
So what job is safe ? What jobs will still exist in 10 years or in 20 years ?
I believe that the jobs most likely to survive this ‘second age of machines’, as it has been dubbed, are jobs where human contact and socialisation is essential. But when we think about it, it is much harder to think about jobs that really cannot be done by human-like robots. Perhaps psychotherapists, relationship counsellors, yoga teacher, hair dressers, party planners, nannies… You will notice that these are generally jobs done by women, and that is not surprising since men are better at systematising tasks like computers, and will therefore be more easily replaced by machines.
90% of jobs will be taken away by robots and computers by 2035 – what jobs are safe ?
by Maciamo
EUPEDIA FORUM
http://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads/29672-90-of-jobs-will-be-taken-away-by-robots-and-computers-by-2035-what-jobs-are-safe
An amazing array of new technologies are set to change human civilisation as we know it. The continuous progress in artificial intelligence will enable computers to do the jobs of telemarketers, clerks, accountants, corporate lawyers, analysts, airline pilots, and countless other jobs. In fact, about half of all jobs existing today will be gone in 10 year’s time, taken over by AI (see related articles by the Financial Times and two from The Economist – first and second).
The transportation industry will be especially hard hit by autonomous vehicles, like Google’s self-driving car, which are already planned to be used as taxi robots. Some metro/subways and tramways already operate without drivers. Most air planes hardly need a pilot anymore. Once autonomous vehicles become operational it won’t be long before taxi drivers and truck drivers loose their job too. Amazon should soon start using drones to deliver orders directly to people’s houses. Once this method of delivery becomes standardised, the whole postal/delivery industry might become robotised.
Superintelligent computers like Watson can already provide better medical diagnostics than any human doctor. Softwares like Quill, who can create reports and articles almost like humans, promise to replace technical writers, and perhaps all writers once their AI exceeds human intelligence. By that point, once the singularity has been reached (perhaps between 2035 and 2045), all scientific research will be done by robots/computers whose intelligence will far exceeds that of humans.
It won’t stop there. Between 2025 and 2035, intelligent robots with human-like capabilities will be able to do practically any job: nurse, social worker, construction worker, shop attendant, waiter, dentist, teacher, translator, cleaner, fire fighter, security guard, soldier…
So what job is safe ? What jobs will still exist in 10 years or in 20 years ?
I believe that the jobs most likely to survive this ‘second age of machines’, as it has been dubbed, are jobs where human contact and socialisation is essential. But when we think about it, it is much harder to think about jobs that really cannot be done by human-like robots. Perhaps psychotherapists, relationship counsellors, yoga teacher, hair dressers, party planners, nannies… You will notice that these are generally jobs done by women, and that is not surprising since men are better at systematising tasks like computers, and will therefore be more easily replaced by machines.
Or jobs that require a human artistic touch, which robots couldn’t really emulate as it depends on a personal sense of taste. This could include interior designer, landscape gardener, fashion designer or chef. Artists, musicians and novelists too could remain, even if eventually computers could produce arts of equal or superior level to that of humans. What matters for us is the feelings and emotions conveyed. Music in particular comes from the heart, which is why robots will have difficult to create new songs or musical genres that really touch humans.
Ideally politicians should be replaced by rational robots, but they might be the last people holding to their positions, as it is essentially as prestige and social position.
Non-essential prestige jobs like high-level athlete could also remain, although personally I don’t see the point of pushing human physical performance to the limit at the age when human can choose to become cyborgs or enhance their physical abilities through gene therapy.
The world economy will change beyond recognition. If 99% of the population ends up jobless, there won’t be a commercial market anymore. Either everything will be manufactured for free by robots, or governments will provide a fixed, equal income to all citizens.
In the first scenario, companies will disappear, as there is no point in trying to make money when everything is free. If robots can run the whole economy better than humans, why should humans bother to help ?
Another way of seeing the future is to let all people have (pacific, unarmed) working robots and 3D printers, and let people produce whatever they want with them. People would be allocated resources by super-AI managing all world resources.