I am convinced that it is impossible to expound the methods of induction in a sound manner, without resting them upon the theory of probability. Perfect knowledge alone can give certainty, and in nature perfect knowledge would be infinite knowledge, which is clearly beyond our capacities. We have, therefore, to content ourselves with partial knowledge-knowledge mingled with ignorance, producing doubt.
The Principles of Science: A Treatise on Logic and Scientific Method (1874) Vol. 1
by William Stanley Jevons
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p. 14
In a certain sense all knowledge is inductive. We can only learn the laws and relations of things in nature by observing those things. But the knowledge gained from the senses is knowledge only of particular facts, and we require some process of reasoning by which we may collect out of the facts the laws obeyed by them. Experience gives us the materials of knowledge: induction digests those materials, and yields us general knowledge. When we possess such knowledge, in the form of general propositions and natural laws, we can usefully apply the reverse process of deduction to ascertain the exact information required at any moment. In its ultimate foundation, then, all knowledge is inductive—in the sense that it is derived by a certain inductive reasoning from the facts of experience.
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pp. 257, 260 & 271
By induction we gain no certain knowledge; but by observation, and the inverse use of deductive reasoning, we estimate the probability that an event which has occurred was preceded by conditions of specified character, or that such conditions will be followed by the event. …I have no objection to use the words cause and causation, provided they are never allowed to lead us to imagine that our knowledge of nature can attain to certainty. …We can never recur too often to the truth that our knowledge of the laws and future events of the external world are only probable.
ジェヴォンズ経済学で “破局“ を回避できるかも？
by 山のキノコ
http://sitakisou.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-155.html
ジェヴォンズというのは19世紀のイギリスの経済学者です。
彼は1865年に著わした『石炭問題』（The Coal Question、邦訳なし）の中で、英国の石炭供給が徐々に枯渇しつつあることに対して警鐘を鳴らしました。そして、“石炭の燃焼効率の改善などの技術革新” により問題が解決されるわけではなく、逆に、技術革新が石炭消費を促進し枯渇を早めてしまうと主張ししました。つまり、予想とは全く逆のパラドックス（逆説）が起こるというのです…。