Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Here are five examples:
It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.
Predictions are hazardous, especially about the future.
It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future.
It’s dangerous to prophesy, particularly about the future.
Never make forecasts, especially about the future.
Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Would you please tell me who I should credit?
Quote Investigator: The earliest evidence known to QI of this saying appeared in the 1948 Danish book “Farvel og Tak” by K. K. Steincke. The title in English would be “Goodbye and Thanks”. The prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations” stated the following:
K. K. Steincke, Goodbye and Thanks (1948), quotes it as a pun used in the Danish parliament in the late 1930s.
More information about the Danish version of this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article.
The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A”. This early citation and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke:
Alas, it is always dangerous to prophesy, particularly, as the Danish proverb says, about the future.
In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable:
“Prediction,” goes an old Danish proverb, “is hazardous, especially about the future.” For the Canadian economy the hazard is especially great.
Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.
In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in “The Journal of Medical Education”, and the author of the article was identified as the Director of Institute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist:
“It is difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future,” as one of our humorists once expressed himself.
The Spring 1962 issue of the literary magazine “The Kenyon Review” printed an instance of the saying:
It is hard to prophecy, particularly about the future, a Danish witticism goes, and I shall refrain from such rashness…
Also in 1962 a Danish geophysical journal publishing in English printed a version of the mock adage:
But, to quote a Danish clown philosopher: “It is difficult to prophesy, especially about the future.”
In 1963 the magazine “Computers and Automation” based in Newtonville, Massachusetts printed yet another variant of the saying:
“Prediction is difficult, especially when dealing with the future”. . .Danish Proverb
In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution:
Let us not forget the old adage, “Forecasting is very difficult, especially about the future.”
In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Neils Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. This ascription occurs frequently in modern times:
We must test all intellectually respectable lines of inquiry, while keeping in mind that, as the great Danish physicist Neils Bohr said, “it is very difficult to predict — especially the future.”
In January 1973 the saying was credited to Neils Bohr again in a journal published by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) by the mathematician Mark Kac of Rockefeller University:
While (to quote Niels Bohr) “it is difficult to predict, especially the future” it might be useful (and fun) to pick out some recent developments which might be the forerunner of things to come.
In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution:
It is always very difficult to prophesy, particularly about the future, and extrapolation of the prices of common stock has ruined many a speculator.
In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. He carefully noted the ascription to Bohr, but he also stated that the expression was “an old Danish proverb”:
A principal purpose of this conference, as I am given to understand, is to try to look into the future of mathematical statistics. Now, there is a saying, attributed to Niels Bohr but apparently an old Danish proverb, that it is difficult to predict, especially the future.
In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr:
As Niels Bohr said in one of his amusing remarks: “It is very hard to predict, especially the future.” But I think mathematics will greatly change its aspect. Something drastic may evolve, an entirely different point of view on the axiomatic method itself.
In 1979 a book reviewer in the London magazine “The Economist” attached the expression to the movie mogul Sam Goldwyn who was well-known for his humorously incongruous statements:
This is because, as Sam Goldwyn once said, it is difficult to make forecasts, especially about the future.
In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn:
Every prognosis here should be salted with all the familiar cautionary phrases, from Samuel Johnson’s snort (when warned in 1770 of Britain’s supposed impending ruin) that “there is a great deal of ruin in a country”, to Samuel Goldwyn’s “never prophesy, especially about the future”
In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn:
“Never make forecasts, especially about the future,” our old friend Sam Goldwyn said.
In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies:
Nostradamus allegedly said, “Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.”
In 1991 a marketer in the tourism industry in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra:
Randall Foskey, director of admissions marketing for Colonial Williamsburg, probably said it best last week at the legislative dinner sponsored by the Virginia Hospitality and Travel Association.
“In the words of Yogi Berra, ‘I never make predictions, especially about the future,’” Foskey said.
In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying:
As Mark Twain said, it is difficult to make predictions, particularly about the future.
In 2000 an article from the RAND Corporation thank tank mentioned ascriptions to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra:
Two familiar quotations are worth citing to clarify the objectives of this analysis. The first is President Eisenhower’s truistic observation that “the future lies before us”; the second has been variously attributed to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra: “It is dangerous to make forecasts, especially about the future.”
In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. The first written instance now known was dated 1948.
Niels Bohr died in 1962, and the first linkage of his name to the expression known to QI appeared in 1971. It is possible that Bohr employed the saying, but it is very unlikely that he coined it. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. Perhaps he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted it. These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered.
(Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation.)
It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
Niels Bohr? Samuel Goldwyn? Robert Storm Petersen? Yogi Berra? Mark Twain? Nostradamus? Anonymous?
Quote Investigator
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/10/20/no-predict/
Dear Quote Investigator: There is a family of popular humorous sayings about the formidable task of successful prognostication. Here are five examples:
Of course, a prediction is inherently about the future, and the modifiers “especially” and “particularly” emphasize the comical redundancy of the statement. These expressions have been attributed to a diverse collection of individuals, including Niels Bohr, Sam Goldwyn, Robert Storm Petersen, and Yogi Berra. Would you please tell me who I should credit?
Quote Investigator: The earliest evidence known to QI of this saying appeared in the 1948 Danish book “Farvel og Tak” by K. K. Steincke. The title in English would be “Goodbye and Thanks”. The prominent reference “The Yale Book of Quotations” stated the following:
More information about the Danish version of this saying is presented in the addendum at the end of this article.
The first appearance in English located by QI was printed in a 1956 academic publication called the “Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A”. This early citation and several others remarked on the Danish language origin of the aphoristic joke:
In May 1961 “The Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science” printed an instance of the saying using the word “hazardous” instead of “dangerous”. Indeed, the phrasing changed over time and was highly variable:
Here are additional selected citations in chronological order.
In September 1961 a version of the expression was published in “The Journal of Medical Education”, and the author of the article was identified as the Director of Institute for Experimental Research in Surgery at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. The words were credited to an unidentified Danish humorist:
The Spring 1962 issue of the literary magazine “The Kenyon Review” printed an instance of the saying:
Also in 1962 a Danish geophysical journal publishing in English printed a version of the mock adage:
In 1963 the magazine “Computers and Automation” based in Newtonville, Massachusetts printed yet another variant of the saying:
In 1969 the book “How to Use the Computer in Business Planning” included an instance of the quip without attribution:
In 1971 a version of the saying was attributed to the famous physicist Neils Bohr in the pages of the “Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”. This ascription occurs frequently in modern times:
In January 1973 the saying was credited to Neils Bohr again in a journal published by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM) by the mathematician Mark Kac of Rockefeller University:
In July 1973 the periodical New Scientist printed an instance without attribution:
In September 1975 the mathematician Mark Kac employed the quip again. He carefully noted the ascription to Bohr, but he also stated that the expression was “an old Danish proverb”:
In 1976 the mathematician Stanislaw M. Ulam writing in his book “Adventures of a Mathematician” credited the adage to Niels Bohr:
In 1979 a book reviewer in the London magazine “The Economist” attached the expression to the movie mogul Sam Goldwyn who was well-known for his humorously incongruous statements:
In 1980 a newspaper in New York reprinted a different article from “The Economist” that credited Samuel Goldwyn:
In 1984 the popular syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith ascribed the adage to Goldwyn:
In 1988 an article in the journal “The Hastings Center Report” assigned the saying to Nostradamus who was well-known for his prophecies:
In 1991 a marketer in the tourism industry in Virginia ascribed a variant of the saying to Yogi Berra:
In 1998 the book “To Light Such a Candle: Chapters in the History of Science and Technology” by Keith J. Laidler suggested that Mark Twain used the saying:
In 2000 an article from the RAND Corporation thank tank mentioned ascriptions to Mark Twain and Yogi Berra:
In conclusion, current evidence indicates that this comical proverb was first expressed in Danish, and the author remains unknown. The first written instance now known was dated 1948.
Niels Bohr died in 1962, and the first linkage of his name to the expression known to QI appeared in 1971. It is possible that Bohr employed the saying, but it is very unlikely that he coined it. Samuel Goldwyn died in 1974, and his first linkage to the saying known to QI was printed in 1979. Perhaps he used the expression, but the evidence is very weak, and it is very unlikely he crafted it. These dates will probably change as more citations are uncovered.
(Great thanks to top lexicographical researcher Barry Popik for his Special thanks to Seamus Bradley, Daniel Gackle, and Janos Simon whose inquires motivated QI to formulate this question and perform this exploration. Thanks also to Douglas G. Wilson for his analysis of the supposed 1918 citation.)