Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis probability yardstick

Accurately communicating probability is an important element of good-quality intelligence assessment. The agreed standard for conveying probability in intelligence analysis in the UK is the ‘PHIA probability yardstick’. This is a scale of probabilistic language developed by Defence Intelligence and latterly adopted by the PHIA for use across the government intelligence community. The scale comprises accepted intelligence terminology at a national level.
This scale demonstrates broad ranges of certainty or uncertainty that can be translated into consistent language. This language is then used in intelligence products in the context of any assessment, accompanied by the scale as an appendix to support interpretation.

4 thoughts on “Professional Heads of Intelligence Analysis probability yardstick

  1. shinichi Post author

    Violence Against Women and Girls
    Strategic Threat Risk Assessment 2023

    National Police Chiefs’ Council

    This assessment covers the breadth of Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) including:

    • Domestic abuse
    • Rape and serious sexual offences
    • Child sexual abuse and exploitation – for female victims aged 10 years and over (in line with the NPCC VAWG definition which incorporates victims aged 10+)
    • Modern slavery and human trafficking
    • Honour based abuse
    • Stalking and harassment
    • Adult sexual exploitation and sex work
    • Tech enabled VAWG which includes online harassment
    • VAWG in different space types: public, private and in places of education
    • Spiking
  2. shinichi Post author

    Remote chance (可能性はないに等しい; 可能性は5%以下)
    Highly unlikely (可能性は非常に低い; 可能性は20%以下)
    Unlikely (可能性が低い; 可能性は35%以下)
    Realistic possibility (現実的にみて可能性がある; 可能性は50%以下)
    Likely or probably (可能性が高い; 可能性は50%以上)
    Highly likely (可能性がとても高い; 可能性は80%以上)
    Almost certain (ほぼ確実な; 可能性は95%以上)

    Almost certain でないと起訴されないという現実のなかで、容疑者が犯罪を犯した可能性を言葉で正確に表すという努力は素晴らしいと思う。


  3. shinichi Post author










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