I think I can safely say that nobody understands quantum mechanics.
Quantum entanglement is the phenomenon that occurs when a group of particles are generated, interact, or share spatial proximity in such a way that the quantum state of each particle of the group cannot be described independently of the state of the others, including when the particles are separated by a large distance. The topic of quantum entanglement is at the heart of the disparity between classical and quantum physics: entanglement is a primary feature of quantum mechanics not present in classical mechanics.
Measurements of physical properties such as position, momentum, spin, and polarization performed on entangled particles can, in some cases, be found to be perfectly correlated. For example, if a pair of entangled particles is generated such that their total spin is known to be zero, and one particle is found to have clockwise spin on a first axis, then the spin of the other particle, measured on the same axis, is found to be anticlockwise. However, this behavior gives rise to seemingly paradoxical effects: any measurement of a particle’s properties results in an apparent and irreversible wave function collapse of that particle and changes the original quantum state. With entangled particles, such measurements affect the entangled system as a whole.
The Fed is trying to reduce inflation by slowing the economy, which it is doing in turn by raising interest rates. But there’s a raging debate over how much the economy needs to slow, how much rates need to rise to achieve a given amount of slowdown and how long rate hikes need to take full effect. I sometimes think of the Fed as trying to operate heavy machinery in a dark room — while wearing heavy mittens.
So, even if we don’t need a severe recession to get inflation under control, we might get one anyway if the Fed brakes too hard. There is, of course, the opposite risk: that the Fed will do too little and inflation won’t come under control. But I think the inflation news has been good enough to justify taking that risk by going easy on rate hikes at least for a while.
The bottom line? A soft landing has become much more plausible than it seemed a few months ago. But it’s not at all a done deal.